The Biggest Threat to Your Own Investment Success Could be Yourself
What follows is a true story. A US University completed an experiment to learn more about the psychology around the subject of success. Subsequent to the initial experiment, similar experiments have been repeated many times at different places and by many different people. The experiment involved getting people to guess the outcome of tossing a coin. You know how it goes, I toss the coin, you guess the outcome and then you are either right or wrong. It involved tossing the coin 500 times and the law of probability says that you would guess right around 250 times or 50% of the time. This outcome is the same no matter how high or how low your IQ is, no matter where you went to school or how much you have studied the art of coin tossing. Just about everyone understands this and knows it.
However, within the 500 tosses you will have a good chance of stringing together a number of tosses in a row that you will guess correctly. This is where the psychology of success comes into effect. The experiment asked it's subjects how they felt about their performance in tossing the coin and guessing the correct outcome at various times during the experiment.
What the experimenters discovered was that when people were having successful runs - four or five or six correct guesses in a row - they developed a belief that their own skill and expertise was responsible for this success. Reasons stated included: I am now concentrating harder and that is improving my performance, I am getting better at this; through to, I have developed the skill of how to guess a coin toss more accurately.
Remember that all these people taking part in the experiment know that the outcome of a guess is based on a 50% probability outcome. Yet these same rational and normal people believe that when they guess a few coin tosses in a row correctly that it is due to their own talent and ability. The psychology of the brain is a scary thing.
The same contradiction happens with traders and investors all the time when trading or investing in the stock market. This is especially observable with new traders and investers. The trader/invester may grow to believe they have "special talents" after a string of winning trades. This may make the trader/invester believe that they are somehow better, or have a special talent for trading, whereby their success has really only been because of probable "chance".
Before long, the investor or trader's belief in their own superior ability begins to result in over confidence - trading too many stocks or trading without properly managing the risk. And the next thing that happens is the Market Slap! The stock market has a nasty habit of slapping down over confident traders with a big loss.
So remember, every trade you take has risk which you need to manage. If you manage your risks and enjoy the chance string of winning trades from time-to-time you will be successful and you will avoid the Market Slap!
About the Author
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