How To Determine If Your Real Estate Investment Market Will Go Up Or Down
These days it's hard to know what is happening in the housing market. Is it rising or falling? There are plenty of people out there trying to predict what is going to happen. The problem is that they are looking nationwide or citywide. Investors need to know what is happening in their specific farm area, though. There are a number of factors that drive real estate prices up or down in any given area. Each market reacts to its own set of conditions, and even different neighborhoods and types of properties will react according to its own set of circumstances.
For the most part, changes in home prices tend to be determined by the inventory of homes available. There is typically a 6-10 month lag time in price changes. That is to say that if inventory increase, prices will decrease about 6-10 months later, and if there is a decrease in inventory, prices will increase about 6-10 months later. Investors benefit because they can use low short sale prices to sell houses quickly before the rest of the inventory catches up. There is a very simple rule of thumb you can use in your market in 2010. When there are 8 months or more of inventory available, prices will fall. If there are 2-3 months of inventory available, prices will rise.
In many areas the first round of the First Time Homebuyer credit could not quench the high demand for starter homes. If your are one of them, the feeding frenzy for lower end homes could continue. Since the credit was expanded to all buyers, sales and prices may be boosted because there will be a larger supply of both homes and buyers available. The impact of the credit might not be that large, though.
The cost of ownership is another factor that directly drives up the price of homes. In 2010, the U.S. Treasury will play a very important role in determining whether the market will rise or fall. There was been little incentive shown by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2009, but it might be different in 2010. The Fed might experience pressure to raise interest rates in order to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even just a small increase in interest rates could drive potential buyers out of the market. State income taxes and local property taxes could increase in the coming year as the local governments face pressure to balance their budgets in 2011. Any increase in property taxes will decrease the number of buyers in the market.
Last, but certainly not least, will be the impact of foreclosures on the housing market in many communities. I believe there will be spikes that occur in markets that heavily used the Option ARM for mortgages between 2004 and 2007 that are going to reset higher as interest rates push payments up. Communities still drowning in unemployment will also experience higher foreclosure levels.
These are just a few of the factors that will impact your local market conditions. Apply the ones that fit. Every market and micro-market will be different.
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